The over/under betting market is one of football’s most popular betting markets and several other sporting events. Punters don’t even need to predict how many goals each team will score but need to estimate the number of goals over or under a specific number. Most punters prefer making wagers in the over/under betting market because the over/under market is easy to understand and gives a punter a higher probability of winning versus other betting markets.
Strategies To Win Over/Under
Some of the proven effective strategies to win in over/under bets in soccer include making wagers on high scoring games, analyzing defensive teams, making conservative wagers on the big stage, wagers on high scoring teams versus regular teams, eliminating betting on three different outcomes, and taking advantage of mispriced bets.
1. Bet On High Scoring Games
High-scoring games are the first opportunities punters look for when making wagers in over or under soccer bets. If a punter expects two teams to score a high number of goals in a game and makes a prediction on the over-betting market, the punter can expect a healthy payout on a real wager. However, high-scoring teams tend to be factored into the odds given by the bookie.
2. Analyze Defensive Teams
By analyzing defensive teams across multiple leagues, punters can profit over/under wagers. Games tend to end in low scores when defensive teams, low-scoring teams, or low-goal conceding teams participate in a match against each other. Punters can place wagers on under 2.5 or 3.5 goals in the over/under betting market. However, consider that the bookie factors the teams’ style and prices the odds accordingly.
3. Conservative Wagers On The Big Stage
Punters should make conservative wagers on big stage games and tournaments. Take the World Cup finals or the Champions League finals, for example. These are the two most wagered on footballing events, with fans worldwide following and making wagers on the sport. However, such games may be harder to predict because teams tend to perform conservatively on the big stage out of fear of conceding a goal or losing the game in the finals.
4. High-scoring Teams
Punters should consider making wagers on high-scoring teams for over a higher number of goals (over 3 or 4). For example, Manchester City is a high goal-scoring team in the English Premier League. The group tends to score an increased number of goals in the Premier League on average and a higher number of goals against weaker opponents. Additionally, Manchester City scored many goals irrespective of at home or away from home.
5. Eliminates Betting On Three Outcomes
A punter can eliminate draw wagers in an over/under chance by making bet goal increments of 0.5, 1.5 goals, 2.5 goals, 3.5 goals, etc. When a punter makes a wager on the outcome of a soccer match, they have to consider one team winning, losing, or the game ending in a draw. With three possible results, punters are to lose a game.
6. Mispriced Wagers
Almost everyone usually bets on popular games, while wagers on unpopular games are made by a few people, such as fans or other value-seeking punters. The over/under betting market can be mispriced for unwanted games, with a few wagers changing the odds for different over or under-betting demands. Several punters making a wager on the same over or under goals market can also cause the bookie to reduce the odds for that market to manage risk.
7. Past Metrics
Punters should follow past metrics to make predictions about future team performances. For example, looking at the average number of goals scored by a team or a league can give a punter a reasonable estimate of how matches generally end in the past. Analyzing past data such as goals scored, assists, penalties, goals conceded, possession stats, etc., help a punter make a better wagering decision in the over/under betting market.
