For years now sports bookies have been using certain codified methods to ensure that they win the largest volume of bets. One of these popular and relatively simple betting strategies is betting against the public or fading the public. There is a certain logic behind betting against the public as it generates a positive return on investment. Evaluating a sports bet takes a genuine interest in the game, diligent monitoring of odds and familiarity with trends and patterns in the game.
There are generally two types of sports bettors. Casual bettors are commonly referred to as squares. Whereas more experienced bettors that engage in sports betting to increase their income.
What is Betting Against the Public or Fading the Public?
Uninformed sports fans and bettors often tend to place uninformed bets on their favorites based on sentiment and basic human tendencies. Sportsbooks know how to anticipate this and then bet on the other team or underdog to win. In this way, they shade the general public’s bets.
The general logic behind this contrarian betting strategy is that the public can be easily swayed. Usually by media sensationalization that is generally directed towards one team. And it’s quite easy for the public to get carried away with this excitement and place bets on the wrong side. This makes smart bettors naturally gravitate towards the other team.
Betting Against the Crowd
General gambling psychology also proves that people are more likely to choose bets that the masses are choosing. This is because that volume of endorsement must mean that the popular bets are the most successful ones. But history has proved that public perception is unreliable, often biased and misguided.
So placing a bet against this public perception could actually be quite an advantageous strategy. This is why Sportsbooks are always playing the line by encouraging action on both sides. Being more aware of the benefits of this simple and age-old strategy could help bettors cash in bigger wins in the future.
Strategies For Punters (Fading the Public)
RescueBet recommends that you keep a few tips in mind while employing this strategy to increase your bankroll from sports betting:
- Pick the sportsbooks favorites
A Moneyline bet refers to picking the outright winner of a game. It provides many opportunities for bettors to win against the public. Pick the favorites that the sportsbooks are recommending. They stand to gain the most from betting against the public so you can piggyback off this advantage in order to increase your winnings. Bettors are credited 0.5 to 1 point for betting on an underdog. This cumulative adds up to a 1-3% increase in your overall win rate.
- Over and under
Sportsbooks allow bettors to wager on the total number of points scored in the game combined. These are called over/under bet. The sportsbook will publish a points line and bettors can bet whether the total will be over or under that line. This strategy is particularly popular when betting against the public in low scoring games such as soccer or hockey. So the next time you notice the public’s opinion swaying unrealistically towards higher points it makes sense to bet ‘under’ so that you can fade the public.
- Learn to read factors that affect public opinion
Understanding how to read public opinion and judge in which sports and games the public is off-base is crucial to this betting strategy. Several other factors can affect public opinion positively or negatively. Some of these factors include having home advantage, team reputation, star player performance, history, predominant media narratives, etc. Different sports and even different leagues within the same sport have differing trends when it comes to betting on underdogs.
- Past versus present performance
A noticeable trend, especially in American football and even soccer, is that the lasting hype from the previous season’s results. Even off-season developments and new trades or transfers have a huge impact on public perception of the outcomes of matches during the early weeks of the season. This is why the first 3 weeks of any season is the best time to bet on the underdog.