Why value bet? If there’s one thing every smart punter should know, it’s how to find a value betting situation.
Well for starters, value bets increase the chances of a successful bet by tenfold So that means frequent wins and larger profits. They also significantly decrease the amount of risk involved, while still keeping things interesting. Because what’s a gamble if there’s no uncertainty, right? It is honestly, one of the best ways to make long term, consistent profits without having to break your head over complex strategies and mathematical equations. If this sound like a good situation to you so far, read on.
What Is A Value Bet?
It all has to do with odds. The odd, as you may know, tell us how likely it is that a particular outcome will occur. And so to keep it short, essentially, a value bet is one where the odds that a bookmaker puts out reflects a probability that in reality, isn’t likely to happen. If a bookmaker thinks that a particular outcome has low chances of occurring, when in all actuality, it has a much higher probability, the price will reflect that frame of thought. This is where you swoop in and take advantage of this discrepancy to make some money. The probability of you winning is higher than the odds being offered.
This does, however, take some practice. But as long as you have a decent amount of knowledge on the sport you’re betting on, you should be able to spot value without any problems. At the end of the day, it’s all about gaining an edge over the bookie, beating them at their own sport.
Having said all of this, here are a couple of tips to help you find value bets, just to get you started.
Sign up with multiple bookies
Every bookie has its own method of calculating probabilities. Which means that from multiple sports bookies, the odds offered will differ. Take advantage of market discrepancies, and compare the numbers that different sports bookies put out. This way, you’ll be able to judge the actual value of a particular bet. And if you find that one of them is slightly astray, then you’ve got yourself a value bet.
Consult betting tipsters
A betting tipster is a punter’s best friend. They want nothing more than for you to beat the bookie. Unlike bookmakers, they do no profit from your losses, so naturally, they would want to provide the most accurate tips possible. There are plenty of great tipping services out there that you can consult.
Odds comparison websites
These websites are a blessing. As an alternative to signing up to a bunch of sportsbooks and checking the odds yourself, they do it for you and put them together for your convenience. This way you can compare betting odds with ease.
Check out less popular markets
Betting on sports or tournaments that aren’t as popular can be a value betting goldmine. Like we’ve mentioned before, value bets are all about getting an upper hand over the bookmaker. You can do so pretty much by being more knowledgeable than them. Most bookies tend to focus on more mainstream competitions because that’s where the money’s at. With ones that aren’t as well known, there is a good chance that they could mess up while calculating betting odds due to lack of knowledge. All you would need to do is a little bit of research, and you could potentially find value.
Value Bet Frequently Asked Questions
How to calculate the value in football betting?
In football betting the chances of losses are high. So more often than not, the only way to achieve steady profit is by backing teams whose odds of winning are more significant than the underdog. Value betting occurs when the probability of a bet winning is higher than the probability reflected in the odds that a bookie provides. If the real likelihood is higher than that indicated by the bookies, then there’s value in that bet. If the probability of an outcome is over 75%, then that becomes a value bet. In the long run, a bettor will always profit by always taking bets that have value.
The formula to calculate a value bet is Value=(Probability*decimal odds)-1
What does value betting mean in Texas Hold ’em?
If you are an avid fan of Texas Hold ’em poker and want to maximize your winnings on each game, then value betting should be a crucial part of your strategy. A value bet will occur when your hand is better than your opponents. A player must always ask the question ‘how much money is my opponent willing to pay up with his second-best holding? In this scenario, the bettor must evaluate how much their opponent would be willing to pay with his worst holding, and then make that bet. To develop this skill, players must learn to actively evaluate every move and take everything into consideration with logic.
How to find value bets when betting on sports?
When it comes to sports betting, the value for any particular bet can be either positive or negative. A wager has a positive value when it is more likely to win than the odds suggest. The multiple variables in sports imply that it is fundamentally safer to bet on the team with higher odds than just selecting the outright winner of a game. Making accurate assessments regularly is what will sustain profits in the long run. Identifying these value bets involves a two-step process- assessing the probabilities of all the possible outcomes and then comparing those probabilities to the relevant odds across multiple providers.
Why do people bet based on expected values?
The expected value is an essential concept in probability (also used in statistics, stocks, and accounts). In this instance, the expected value is the numerical value that predicts the cost of a variable. The expected value is the easiest way for bettors to get value bets, usually when it can otherwise be hard to predict a future event. Sports outcomes can often be unpredictable, but the expected value of a particular outcome isn’t. Bettors that know how to read expected value can outsmart the bookmakers and in turn, maximize their profits.
The formula for calculating expected value = (Probability of winning) x (Amount won per bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount lost per bet).
How to find value on soccer betting odds?
In simple terms, the expected value is the average amount of profit or loss we would expect to make from a particular sports event. In soccer, bettors can find the expected value of a specific outcome by multiplying each result with the probability of that outcome and then adding these values together. It is essential to note that the expected value is not fixed in the short term. If the expected value is positive when the same bet is run an infinite number of times, then that bet has value and is likely to be more successful in the long run. Punters can spot value in trades across the same sport with different providers or across different games with the same provider.